The technology of forecasting directions of social development for the medium-term perspective
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Abstract
Introduction. The article describes and substantiates the technology of forecasting directions of social development in the medium-term perspective. The analysis of today’s most popular approaches to forecasting social development allowed us to conclude that there is a lack of methodological support, focused on the specifics of the development of a certain society and, at the same time, which provides the opportunity to describe the qualitative characteristics of this development, taking into account its internal factors. The proposed technology is just such methodological support, which indicates the relevance of its development.
The purpose of the work is to develop a technology for forecasting macrosocial processes, which would take into account the psychological characteristics of members of society. More specifically, it is about the technology of forecasting social development in the medium term.
Methodology and scientific approaches. The proposed technology is the result of the operationalization of the previously developed five-factor prognostic model of social development. The latter is based on the definition of desired states of society for various social groups, as well as the psychological and non-psychological resources that allow members of these social groups to realize these desired states.
The results. The developed technology is an algorithm for forecasting the directions of social development along with the necessary tools for its implementation – the guide for focus group interviews and the questionnaire items for a mass survey. However, part of the items of the questionnaire should be obtained on the basis of the analysis of the results of the focus group study.
Conclusions. The article substantiates the potential of using the developed technology. It allows determining the trends of the development of socio-political processes in society in the medium-term perspective and the socio-psychological determinants of these processes. In addition, it allows forecasting internal conflicts in society and the form of their course, in particular, the expression of protest potential. The expediency of using technology for the analysis of societies whose development looks unpredictable or carries potential or real threats to our state is separately substantiated.
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References
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