Correlation-factor-cluster modelling as a tool for predicting social change
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Abstract
Relevance. The article presents a substantiation of the effectiveness of correlation-factor-cluster modelling for clarifying the typology of economic behaviour models and forecasting the dynamics of socio-economic changes.
The main objectives of the study were to differentiate the typology, test the tools and verify the indicators, which would allow to clarify the lines of analysis and improve the quality of the forecast.
Methodology. The correlation-factor-cluster model obtained using the statistical software R and Excel formed four superclusters, as well as clusters of the first, second and third orders.
The results. The empirically identified superclusters generally correspond to the types (models of economic behaviour) identified at the stage of theoretical analysis, but are not identical to them. The analysis of the indicators that formed them made it possible to clarify the indicators of the types and the name of one of them. The clusters of different orders included in the superclusters represent subtypes of each type. In total, 15 subtypes were identified, the existence of which was not obvious at the stage of theoretical analysis. The indicators that formed the subtypes give an idea of the actual level of practice of representatives of each type. The drift probabilities of subtypes help to significantly refine the forecast of the dynamics of socio-economic changes.
The practical significance. The modelling results allowed not only to adjust and detail the typology of economic behaviour models, but also to identify additional indicators on the basis of which tools for data collection and forecasting the dynamics of socio-economic changes should be constructed.
Prospects. The proposed approach seems to be productive not only for forecasting scenarios of the development of the social situation, but also for clarifying and differentiating socio-psychological typologies with minimal costs at the stage of exploratory research.
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References
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