Possibilities and limitations of the subject approach to forecasting social development processes
Main Article Content
Abstract
The initial problem of the research is the lack of approaches in social forecasting that would take into account psychological mechanisms and determinants of macrosocial processes. The article analyzes the subjective approach to forecasting processes of social development, according to which the subject of any social changes is a person as a member of this society, and the direction of social development is directly determined by the contents of the mental life of members of a certain society. The purpose of this work is to justify the relevance of this approach, as well as to determine its methodological possibilities and limitations.
The analysis of literary made it possible to identify two theoretical and methodological positions, which oppose the initial position of the subject approach to forecasting social development. The first of them is related to the statement about social determinism of human behavior, the second – to the statement about immanent indeterminism of human behavior. The paper substantiates the legality of applying the subject approach to forecasting social development despite these positions.
Based on the theoretical analysis, a number of methodological problems, which lead to limitations in the application of the subject approach to forecasting social development, are identified. First, it is extreme complexity of social systems, which results in reductionism when building predictive models. Secondly, it is the insensitivity of the mentioned approach to influence of external factors on social development. Thirdly, it is unpredictability of creative solutions, which set the zone of uncertainty in social forecasting. In addition, the work shows that broad possibilities for application of the subject approach are presented in the field of scenario forecasting and in the modeling of social development processes. The models of social development constructed within this approach are described, and the forecasts obtained on their basis regarding the directions of the unfolding of the historical process are described.
Downloads
Article Details
References
Bourdieu, P. (1998). Struktura, gabitus, praktika [Structure, habitus, practice]. Teoreticheskiye problemy sotsiologii i sotsialnoy antropologii [Theoretical problems of sociology and social anthropology], 2, 44–60. (in Russian)
Febvre, L. (1991). Boi za istoriyu [Fight for history]. Mоscow: Nauka. (in Russian)
Fillips, L., & Yorgensen, M. V. (2008). Diskurs-analizs. Teoriya i metod [Discourse analysis. Theory and method]. Kharkiv: Gumanitarnyy Tsentr. (in Russian)
Fukuyama, F. (2007). Konets istorii i posledniy chelovek [The End of History and the Last Man]. Mоscow: AST. (in Russian)
Geriliv, D. Yu. (2014). Typolohiia derzhavy: teoretyko-pravove doslidzhennia [Typology of the state: theoretical and legal research]. (Abstract of dissertations). Lviv: National University «Lviv Polytechnic». (in Ukrainian)
Huntington, S. P. (1993). The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs, 72 (3), 22–49. (in English)
Leontyev, A. N. (1975). Deyatelnost. Soznaniye. Lichnost [Practice. Conscious Person]. Mоscow: Politizdat. (in Russian)
Marks, K., & Engels, F. (1955). Nemetskaya ideologiya [German ideology]. In K. Marks, F. Engels, Sochineniya [Works] (Vol. 3). Mоscow: Politizdat . (in Russian)
Maslow, A. (2008). Motivatsiya i lichnost [Motivation and personality]. Saint Petersburg: Piter. (in Russian)
Mead, J. G. (2000). Dukh, samist i suspilstvo z tochky zoru sotsialnoho bikheviorysta [Spirit, self and society from the point of view of a social behaviorist]. Kyiv: Ukrainian Center of Spiritual Culture. (in Ukrainian)
Nazaretyan, A. P. (2016). Psikhologiya v sotsialnom prognozirovanii: yeshche raz o prichinnykh zavisimostyakh [Psychology in social forecasting: once again about causal dependencies]. Voprosy filosofii [Questions of Philosophy], 7, 115–129. (in Russian)
Popper, K. (1994). Vidkryte suspilstvo ta yoho vorohy [The open society and its enemies]. Vol. 1-2. Kyiv: Osnovy. (in Ukrainian)
Rubinstein, S. L. (1986). Printsip tvorcheskoy samodeyatelnosti [The principle of creative initiative]. Voprosy psikhologii [Questions of Psychology], 4, 101–107. (in Russian)
Schwartz, S. H. (1992). Universals in the content and structure of values: Theory and empirical tests in 20 countries. Advances in experimental social psychology, 25, 1–65. (in English)
Sorokin, P. A. (1992). Chelovek. Tsivilizatsiya. Obshchestvo [Human. Civilization. Society]. Mоscow: Politizdat. (in Russian)
Tatenko, V. A. (1996). Psychology in the subjective dimension [Psikhologiya v subyektnom izmerenii]. Kyiv: Prosvita.(in Russian)
Toffler, E. (2004). Tretya volna [Third wave]. Mоscow: AST. (in Russian)
Toynbee, A. J. (2001). Postizheniye istorii: Sbornik [Comprehension of History: Collection]. Mоscow: Rolf. (in Russian)
Zhovtianska, V. V. (2020). Psykholohiia reprezentatsii diisnosti [The psychology of representations of reality]. Kyiv: Talkom. (in Ukrainian)
Zhovtianska, V. V. (2021). Psykholohichni zasady modelyuvannia yak metodychnoho napriamu sotsialnoi prohnostyky [Psychological principles of modeling as a methodological direction of social prognosis]. Naukovi studii iz sotsialnoi ta politychnoi psykholohii [Scientific Studies in Social and Political Psychology], 48 (51), 9–15. (in Ukrainian)
Zhovtianska, V. (2022). Sotsialno-psyckolohichni determinanty formuvannia totalitaryzmu [Social and psychological determinants of the formation of totalitarianism]. Problems of Political Psychology, 12(26), 60–76. (in Ukrainian)